First race of the season

The start of the Formula1 season is expected every year after the rather long break since the last race, but it would be quite interesting to find out if from a statistical point of view we could find some criteria that would give us clues about a possible future podium or even the F1 champion.

As criteria, we will take into account the drivers who started from the front line, who won and those who scored a point in the first race of each season.

Front row

As can be seen in the graph below, the drivers who start from the front row, mostly finish in the first 6 positions, with the highest chance of even being champion and descending for the following positions.

In the last years from 2022 to 2013, the two drivers who started from the front row in the first race of the season finished in the top three. In 2012, Button and Hamilton started in Melbourne from the front row, but they failed to get the podium in the final ranking of the season. Out of the 73 completed seasons, only in 10 no driver from the front row finished the season on the podium and in 33 seasons both drivers from the front row finished the season on the podium.

In 44 seasons, we have the case when one of the drivers who started from the podium won the championship.

At the top we find Michael Schumacher who in 7 seasons started from the front row and finished the season on the podium, in 6 of them he was also champion, and in 2006 he started from pole position in Bahrain but finished the championship in 2nd place.

Top drivers on the podium at the end of the season

Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton each became champions in 6 seasons starting from the front row. The only championships won where they did not meet these conditions are in 2020 when Hamilton won the championship but in Austria he only started from 5th place and Schumacher in 2000 when in Melbourne he missed the first starting line, starting from 3rd position.

Top champions

Victory

In the case of the drivers who won the first race, in the graph below, we notice that in the ranking of the end of the season, the 1st place stands out even against the 2nd, 3rd place, if we compare it with the previous case of those who started from the front row.

The winner of the first race finished the season in the top three in 59 seasons. From 2014 to 2022, in all seasons the race winner finished on the podium. In 1966 Jackie Stewart wins the race but finishes the season in 7th position, being the first season since 1950 when the winner of the first race of the season does not finish the season on the podium. In 2013 Kimi Raikkonen wins the first race in Australia but ends the season in 5th place, being the last such case.

Michael Schumacher is in the top with 6 seasons finished on the podium after winning the first race in each season, followed by Juan Manuel Fangio with 5 and Alain Prost with 4.

Top drivers on the podium at the end of the season

The first season in which the winner of the first race also won the championship was in 1950 when Farina won at Silverstone, and the last time Nico Rosberg won in 2016 in Australia.

It is interesting that the top remains almost the same Schumacher with 6, Fangio with 5, and Alain Prost remains on 3 but only with 2 seasons together with Ayrton Senna and Lewis Hamilton.

Top champions

Points

In 70 Formula1 seasons, those drivers who scored points in the first race finished the season on the podium. The three seasons that do not have this criterion are:

• 1966 - at the Monte Carlo race, the podium drivers at the end of the season abandoned the race: Jody Scheckter, John Surtees and Jochen Rindt
• 1970 - Clay Regazzoni finishes third but does not participate in the first race at South Africa where Jacky Icks retires and Jochen Rindt does not finish in the points
• 1979 - future F1 champion Jody Scheckter abandons the Buenos Aires race and Gilles Villeneuve and Alan Jones do not finish in the points

The winner of the Formula1 championship has obtained at least one point in 55 seasons.

Podium

Below we have the pie charts with chances to be on podium if on the first race

F1 Champion

Below we have the pie charts with chances to win the F1 title if on the first

After the first race, we could say that the best chance to be on the podium at the end of the season is one of the drivers who get points, 95.9%, considering that this has not happened in only three seasons. In order to reduce the number of drivers to take into account, we could go with the option of the two who will start from first row, 86.3%.

Statistically, the winner of the Formula1 season has a high chance of being one who scored point in the first race, we could narrow it down again to the two who will start from the front row with a percentage of 58.9%, while the one who wins the first race has a chance of 46.6%